Agautam
Agautam
2013-04-26T09:48:53
2013-04-26T09:48:53
SAS Institute Inc. http://www.sas.com
9.03.01M0P06072011
1
100
1
1
300
300
80
California Energy Demand 2014-2024 Preliminary Forecast - High Demand Case |
April 2013 |
|
List of Forms |
|
Form 1.1: Total Electricity Consumption by Sector |
Form 1.1b: Electricity Sales by Sector (equals consumption minus self-generation) |
Form 1.2: Net Energy for Load (equals consumption plus losses minus self-generation) |
Form 1.3: Coincident Peak by Sector: |
Form 1.4: Net Peak Demand (equals sum of peaks by sector plus losses minus self-generation |
Form 1.5: Extreme Temperature Peak Demand |
Form 1.7a: Private Supply by Sector |
Form 2.2: Economic and Demographic Assumptions |
Form 2.3: Electricity Prices by Sector |
|
1
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1
1
300
300
80
Form 1.1 - PGE Planning Area |
California Energy Demand 2014-2024 Preliminary Forecast - High Demand Case |
Electricity Consumption by Sector (GWh) |
|
Year |
Residential |
Residential Electric
Vehicles* |
Commercial |
Commercial Electric Vehicles* |
Manufacturing |
Mining |
Agricultural |
TCU |
Street
Lighting |
Total
Consumption |
1990 |
25837.23 |
0 |
26050.584 |
0 |
19808.82 |
2973.2523 |
6504.2588 |
4941.1114 |
480.51747 |
86595.775 |
1991 |
26301.517 |
0 |
26353.93 |
0 |
19492.728 |
2988.8379 |
5878.2652 |
4869.9907 |
507.84396 |
86393.113 |
1992 |
26406.003 |
0 |
27349.639 |
0 |
19446.958 |
2909.0618 |
6068.6264 |
4886.6476 |
499.08797 |
87566.025 |
1993 |
26773.708 |
0 |
27724.639 |
0 |
19587.794 |
2822.3625 |
5847.0753 |
4966.9477 |
506.88419 |
88229.412 |
1994 |
27012.859 |
0 |
27855.592 |
0 |
19641.896 |
2402.9664 |
5769.7732 |
4880.2094 |
509.44068 |
88072.737 |
1995 |
27079.771 |
0 |
28520.522 |
0 |
20589.3 |
2247.3822 |
5377.523 |
4958.3873 |
527.18495 |
89300.07 |
1996 |
28119.962 |
0 |
29468.294 |
0 |
20255.609 |
2356.9248 |
5720.2242 |
5126.5627 |
541.581 |
91589.157 |
1997 |
28599.35 |
0 |
31200.868 |
0 |
21512.062 |
2440.3901 |
5971.8247 |
4925.8817 |
559.28085 |
95209.658 |
1998 |
29596.096 |
0 |
31152.463 |
0 |
20852.83 |
2325.3661 |
4996.9766 |
4868.3776 |
572.17796 |
94364.287 |
1999 |
30520.978 |
0 |
33164.429 |
0 |
20249.379 |
2489.3751 |
6005.28 |
5206.5982 |
509.34412 |
98145.384 |
2000 |
31427.72 |
0 |
34660.124 |
0 |
20497.203 |
2535.9517 |
6029.6026 |
5344.4905 |
554.83586 |
101049.93 |
2001 |
29656.584 |
0 |
34062.404 |
0 |
18874.692 |
2782.5152 |
6463.4189 |
4748.9951 |
520.43529 |
97109.045 |
2002 |
30548.695 |
0 |
34857.584 |
0 |
17833.116 |
2693.783 |
6543.9059 |
5019.0076 |
513.75017 |
98009.842 |
2003 |
31999.226 |
0 |
35445.681 |
0 |
17568.807 |
2878.6591 |
6352.7405 |
4690.6855 |
519.49907 |
99455.299 |
2004 |
32591.345 |
0 |
35972.035 |
0 |
18431.655 |
3013.8177 |
6798.3031 |
5001.7165 |
533.89288 |
102342.76 |
2005 |
33288.536 |
0 |
35771.341 |
0 |
18602.923 |
3209.5584 |
5384.0746 |
5091.0988 |
534.89805 |
101882.43 |
2006 |
34645.106 |
0 |
36746.549 |
0 |
18674.683 |
3402.6425 |
5985.0742 |
5276.6836 |
538.53637 |
105269.27 |
2007 |
34281.418 |
0 |
38728.315 |
0 |
18432.261 |
3760.9284 |
7056.0786 |
5692.9015 |
483.33344 |
108435.24 |
2008 |
34716.472 |
0 |
38799.552 |
0 |
18640.025 |
3789.0298 |
7506.1831 |
6033.9979 |
500.6896 |
109985.95 |
2009 |
34987.241 |
0 |
37589.908 |
0 |
17331.255 |
3887.7675 |
7675.0372 |
6203.5053 |
511.33008 |
108186.04 |
2010 |
34506.512 |
1.363332 |
37364.067 |
2.8117397 |
17208.995 |
3922.7504 |
7182.0293 |
6009.375 |
510.9811 |
106704.71 |
2011 |
34694.343 |
1.9967701 |
37645.256 |
4.1181442 |
17282.735 |
4019.2965 |
5930.5338 |
6369.1703 |
499.06779 |
106440.4 |
2012 |
34760.992 |
40.771955 |
36791.065 |
4.4676184 |
16929.171 |
3949.1261 |
7539.5254 |
6221.6499 |
498.2342 |
106689.76 |
2013 |
34631.077 |
211.05399 |
37046.02 |
5.4549602 |
16932.349 |
3895.4713 |
7283.5204 |
6287.2597 |
499.40336 |
106575.1 |
2014 |
35862.623 |
422.56236 |
37504.025 |
7.1064164 |
17091.793 |
3967.4453 |
7352.4149 |
6364.3221 |
499.40488 |
108642.03 |
2015 |
36461.895 |
648.0009 |
38115.276 |
11.026138 |
17198.575 |
4004.8413 |
7448.9933 |
6419.2119 |
498.95705 |
110147.75 |
2016 |
36971.062 |
865.83601 |
38783.505 |
17.572963 |
17250.786 |
4002.6731 |
7581.3184 |
6466.4747 |
498.36691 |
111554.19 |
2017 |
37610.052 |
1107.6283 |
39491.372 |
26.32689 |
17298.983 |
3995.9111 |
7680.4469 |
6516.4452 |
498.68554 |
113091.9 |
2018 |
38257.633 |
1350.9775 |
40141.773 |
37.254743 |
17352.626 |
3992.872 |
7821.5539 |
6565.0729 |
499.58542 |
114631.12 |
2019 |
39130.633 |
1584.8512 |
40757.342 |
52.046526 |
17408.177 |
3996.5866 |
7940.0319 |
6610.9186 |
500.54624 |
116344.24 |
2020 |
39982.143 |
1814.3869 |
41361.131 |
70.811629 |
17447.617 |
4009.0048 |
8065.7373 |
6644.8534 |
501.27016 |
118011.76 |
2021 |
40905.546 |
2036.0388 |
42047.312 |
94.417635 |
17526.489 |
3999.4619 |
8182.9682 |
6669.6775 |
501.85442 |
119833.31 |
2022 |
41861.677 |
2241.1551 |
42725.203 |
121.02408 |
17611.159 |
3998.5269 |
8306.8114 |
6702.2675 |
502.8544 |
121708.5 |
2023 |
42812.114 |
2453.8092 |
43305.372 |
155.12293 |
17690.72 |
3997.1741 |
8437.5299 |
6748.8734 |
504.11037 |
123495.89 |
2024 |
43736.245 |
2649.7357 |
43884.559 |
187.17454 |
17783.939 |
3994.1541 |
8573.9527 |
6793.6297 |
505.39277 |
125271.87 |
|
* Residential and commercial electric vehicle consumption included in residential and commercial totals. |
Last historic year is 2012. Consumption includes self-generation. |
|
Annual Growth Rates (%) |
1990-2000 |
0.0197805 |
0 |
0.0289666 |
0 |
0.003422 |
-0.015783 |
-0.007549 |
0.0078785 |
0.0144848 |
0.0155561 |
2000-2012 |
0.0084358 |
0 |
0.0049845 |
0 |
-0.015811 |
0.0376001 |
0.0187977 |
0.0127446 |
-0.008927 |
0.0045361 |
2012-2016 |
0.0155293 |
1.146686 |
0.0132723 |
0.4082904 |
0.004716 |
0.0033727 |
0.0013829 |
0.0096957 |
0.0000666 |
0.0112087 |
2012-2024 |
0.0193245 |
0.4160223 |
0.0148008 |
0.3651516 |
0.0041132 |
0.0009452 |
0.0107717 |
0.0073561 |
0.0011895 |
0.01347 |
|
1
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1
1
300
300
80
Form 1.1b - PGE Planning Area |
California Energy Demand 2014-2024 Preliminary Forecast - High Demand Case |
Electricity Sales by Sector (GWh) |
|
Year |
Residential |
Commercial |
Manufacturing |
Mining |
Agricultural |
TCU |
Street
Lighting |
Total Sales |
1990 |
25837.23 |
25638.447 |
17852.696 |
1800.1573 |
6504.2588 |
4556.2686 |
480.51747 |
82669.576 |
1991 |
26301.517 |
25915.074 |
17547.115 |
1797.3789 |
5878.2652 |
4668.2117 |
507.84396 |
82615.405 |
1992 |
26406.003 |
26918.834 |
17476.052 |
1777.8558 |
6068.6264 |
4740.5272 |
499.08797 |
83886.987 |
1993 |
26773.708 |
27276.511 |
16791.965 |
1700.7225 |
5847.0753 |
4811.3585 |
506.88419 |
83708.225 |
1994 |
27012.859 |
27408.051 |
16704.086 |
1466.3934 |
5769.7732 |
4730.1777 |
509.44068 |
83600.781 |
1995 |
27079.771 |
28072.926 |
17662.329 |
1259.8 |
5377.523 |
4809.664 |
527.18495 |
84789.198 |
1996 |
28119.962 |
29020.351 |
16872.351 |
1291.1873 |
5720.2242 |
4978.8804 |
541.581 |
86544.536 |
1997 |
28599.35 |
30764.836 |
18069.458 |
1334.4758 |
5971.8247 |
4784.5287 |
559.28085 |
90083.754 |
1998 |
29596.08 |
30721.123 |
17804.317 |
1172.7212 |
4996.9766 |
4728.187 |
572.17796 |
89591.582 |
1999 |
30520.749 |
32735.65 |
17209.702 |
1354.0009 |
6005.28 |
5063.8762 |
509.34412 |
93398.603 |
2000 |
31427.007 |
34238.197 |
17722.394 |
1364.7506 |
6029.6026 |
5203.1265 |
554.83586 |
96539.914 |
2001 |
29655.073 |
33857.039 |
16138.189 |
1399.8242 |
6463.4189 |
4734.9821 |
520.43529 |
92768.962 |
2002 |
30542.529 |
34501.863 |
15063.812 |
1225.638 |
6543.9059 |
4998.3198 |
513.75017 |
93389.818 |
2003 |
31986.66 |
35122.762 |
14366.113 |
1365.4121 |
6352.7405 |
4674.8169 |
519.49907 |
94388.003 |
2004 |
32566.466 |
35589.915 |
15264.637 |
1489.8957 |
6797.9166 |
4979.4048 |
533.89288 |
97222.129 |
2005 |
33250.969 |
35297.84 |
15504.213 |
1771.0576 |
5382.0455 |
5065.1275 |
534.89805 |
96806.151 |
2006 |
34591.419 |
36237.631 |
15425.073 |
1993.0089 |
5979.8164 |
5237.6458 |
538.53637 |
100003.13 |
2007 |
34203.64 |
38172.985 |
15195.82 |
2328.3994 |
7049.0935 |
5650.4758 |
483.33344 |
103083.75 |
2008 |
34597.567 |
38217.319 |
14932.438 |
2405.4049 |
7493.9108 |
5991.3214 |
500.6896 |
104138.65 |
2009 |
34811.176 |
36907.983 |
13772.203 |
2505.0882 |
7654.171 |
6144.5175 |
511.33008 |
102306.47 |
2010 |
34259.849 |
36615.507 |
13660.972 |
2629.2158 |
7156.2288 |
5933.7089 |
510.9811 |
100766.46 |
2011 |
34359.319 |
36738.277 |
13745.4 |
2695.4224 |
5895.8262 |
6277.4682 |
499.06779 |
100210.78 |
2012 |
34328.752 |
35790.28 |
13301.775 |
2585.8371 |
7487.5563 |
6104.6495 |
498.2342 |
100097.09 |
2013 |
33956.662 |
35695.343 |
13261.371 |
2529.734 |
7203.919 |
6140.0109 |
499.40336 |
99286.442 |
2014 |
35111.465 |
35939.686 |
13390.54 |
2598.4934 |
7254.4537 |
6197.4785 |
499.40488 |
100991.52 |
2015 |
35615.373 |
36415.444 |
13483.129 |
2587.389 |
7339.7255 |
6242.362 |
498.95705 |
102182.38 |
2016 |
35971.691 |
36948.746 |
13520.605 |
2583.6083 |
7462.9838 |
6280.5347 |
498.36691 |
103266.54 |
2017 |
36610.041 |
37564.601 |
13561.94 |
2576.6652 |
7557.6062 |
6326.1432 |
498.68554 |
104695.68 |
2018 |
37252.976 |
38120.386 |
13608.201 |
2573.3874 |
7693.9109 |
6370.0988 |
499.58542 |
106118.54 |
2019 |
38117.089 |
38638.672 |
13655.823 |
2576.8024 |
7807.2728 |
6410.9444 |
500.54624 |
107707.15 |
2020 |
38950.24 |
39142.394 |
13686.753 |
2588.8571 |
7927.5298 |
6439.5317 |
501.27016 |
109236.58 |
2021 |
39830.347 |
39726.467 |
13756.502 |
2578.8836 |
8038.96 |
6458.6407 |
501.85442 |
110891.65 |
2022 |
40655.512 |
40301.559 |
13831.399 |
2577.4469 |
8156.6297 |
6485.1262 |
502.8544 |
112510.53 |
2023 |
41429.847 |
40778.588 |
13900.499 |
2575.5179 |
8280.7796 |
6525.2155 |
504.11037 |
113994.56 |
2024 |
42136.913 |
41254.274 |
13982.53 |
2571.843 |
8410.2152 |
6563.0186 |
505.39277 |
115424.19 |
|
Last historic year is 2012. Sales excludes self-generation. |
|
Annual Growth Rates (%) |
1990-2000 |
0.0197782 |
0.0293473 |
-0.000732 |
-0.02731 |
-0.007549 |
0.0133641 |
0.0144848 |
0.0156314 |
2000-2012 |
0.0073868 |
0.0037014 |
-0.023627 |
0.0547001 |
0.0182106 |
0.013405 |
-0.008927 |
0.0030199 |
2012-2016 |
0.0117558 |
0.0079956 |
0.0040877 |
-0.000216 |
-0.000821 |
0.0071264 |
0.0000666 |
0.0078236 |
2012-2024 |
0.0172251 |
0.0119102 |
0.0041679 |
-0.000452 |
0.0097308 |
0.0060516 |
0.0011895 |
0.0119435 |
|
1
100
1
1
300
300
80
Form 1.2 - PGE Planning Area |
California Energy Demand 2014-2024 Preliminary Forecast - High Demand Case |
Net Energy for Load (GWh) |
|
Year |
Total
Consumption |
Net Losses |
Gross
Generation |
Non-PV
Self Generation |
PV |
Total
Private
Supply |
Net Energy
for Load |
1990 |
86595.775 |
7936.2793 |
94532.054 |
3926.1989 |
0 |
3926.1989 |
90605.855 |
1991 |
86393.113 |
7931.0789 |
94324.192 |
3777.7074 |
0 |
3777.7074 |
90546.484 |
1992 |
87566.025 |
8053.1508 |
95619.175 |
3679.0377 |
0 |
3679.0377 |
91940.138 |
1993 |
88229.412 |
8035.9896 |
96265.401 |
4521.187 |
0 |
4521.187 |
91744.214 |
1994 |
88072.737 |
8025.675 |
96098.412 |
4471.9556 |
0 |
4471.9556 |
91626.456 |
1995 |
89300.07 |
8139.763 |
97439.833 |
4510.8728 |
0 |
4510.8728 |
92928.961 |
1996 |
91589.157 |
8308.2755 |
99897.432 |
5044.6206 |
0 |
5044.6206 |
94852.811 |
1997 |
95209.658 |
8648.0404 |
103857.7 |
5125.9032 |
0 |
5125.9032 |
98731.795 |
1998 |
94364.287 |
8600.7919 |
102965.08 |
4772.6794 |
0.0254918 |
4772.7049 |
98192.374 |
1999 |
98145.384 |
8966.2659 |
107111.65 |
4746.4742 |
0.3069013 |
4746.7811 |
102364.87 |
2000 |
101049.93 |
9267.8318 |
110317.76 |
4508.9831 |
1.0309281 |
4510.014 |
105807.75 |
2001 |
97109.045 |
8905.8203 |
106014.87 |
4337.9601 |
2.123062 |
4340.0831 |
101674.78 |
2002 |
98009.842 |
8965.4225 |
106975.26 |
4611.9827 |
8.0414195 |
4620.0241 |
102355.24 |
2003 |
99455.299 |
9061.2483 |
108516.55 |
5046.3231 |
20.972876 |
5067.296 |
103449.25 |
2004 |
102342.76 |
9333.3244 |
111676.09 |
5076.4357 |
44.2002 |
5120.6359 |
106555.45 |
2005 |
101882.43 |
9293.3905 |
111175.82 |
5001.717 |
74.561383 |
5076.2784 |
106099.54 |
2006 |
105269.27 |
9600.3006 |
114869.57 |
5149.8618 |
116.28113 |
5266.1429 |
109603.43 |
2007 |
108435.24 |
9896.0397 |
118331.28 |
5173.5147 |
177.97409 |
5351.4888 |
112979.79 |
2008 |
109985.95 |
9997.3105 |
119983.26 |
5558.0905 |
289.20839 |
5847.2988 |
114135.96 |
2009 |
108186.04 |
9821.421 |
118007.46 |
5412.6701 |
466.90477 |
5879.5749 |
112127.89 |
2010 |
106704.71 |
9673.5804 |
116378.29 |
5353.7444 |
584.50295 |
5938.2474 |
110440.04 |
2011 |
106440.4 |
9620.2349 |
116060.64 |
5428.0115 |
801.61011 |
6229.6216 |
109831.02 |
2012 |
106689.76 |
9609.3202 |
116299.08 |
5522.3171 |
1070.3612 |
6592.6782 |
109706.41 |
2013 |
106575.1 |
9531.4985 |
116106.6 |
5663.2633 |
1625.3951 |
7288.6584 |
108817.94 |
2014 |
108642.03 |
9695.1861 |
118337.21 |
5783.9268 |
1866.5799 |
7650.5067 |
110686.71 |
2015 |
110147.75 |
9809.5085 |
119957.26 |
5907.7178 |
2057.6516 |
7965.3694 |
111991.89 |
2016 |
111554.19 |
9913.5874 |
121467.77 |
5969.3188 |
2318.3314 |
8287.6502 |
113180.12 |
2017 |
113091.9 |
10050.785 |
123142.68 |
6023.8963 |
2372.3177 |
8396.2139 |
114746.47 |
2018 |
114631.12 |
10187.38 |
124818.5 |
6078.5387 |
2434.0327 |
8512.5714 |
116305.92 |
2019 |
116344.24 |
10339.886 |
126684.12 |
6133.2877 |
2503.7982 |
8637.0859 |
118047.04 |
2020 |
118011.76 |
10486.711 |
128498.47 |
6188.2707 |
2586.9101 |
8775.1808 |
119723.29 |
2021 |
119833.31 |
10645.599 |
130478.91 |
6242.3604 |
2699.2944 |
8941.6547 |
121537.25 |
2022 |
121708.5 |
10801.011 |
132509.51 |
6293.9927 |
2903.9793 |
9197.9719 |
123311.54 |
2023 |
123495.89 |
10943.478 |
134439.37 |
6342.7057 |
3158.6306 |
9501.3363 |
124938.03 |
2024 |
125271.87 |
11080.722 |
136352.59 |
6388.1671 |
3459.5183 |
9847.6854 |
126504.91 |
|
Annual Growth Rates (%) |
1990-2000 |
0.0155561 |
0.0156314 |
0.0155624 |
0.0139362 |
0 |
0.0139594 |
0.0156314 |
2000-2012 |
0.0045361 |
0.0030199 |
0.0044097 |
0.0170373 |
0.7838507 |
0.0321441 |
0.0030199 |
2012-2016 |
0.0112087 |
0.0078236 |
0.0109303 |
0.0196494 |
0.213141 |
0.0588694 |
0.0078236 |
2012-2024 |
0.01347 |
0.0119435 |
0.0133448 |
0.0122114 |
0.1026993 |
0.0340051 |
0.0119435 |
|